A probability-driven multilayer framework for scheduling intermittent renewable energy

A probability-driven, multilayer framework is proposed in this paper for ISOs to schedule intermittent wind power and other renewables. The basic idea is to view the intermittent renewable energy as a product with lower quality (i.e., the probability of energy availability in real time) than dispatchable power plants, such as thermal or hydro, from the operators´ viewpoint. “Layers” considering the probability of delivery are proposed, such that various loads (critical load or non-essential controllable load) may participate in different layers in the energy market. A layer with a lower expected probability of energy availability is generally expected to have a lower price. This is similar to having different prices for commodities of different qualities. A methodology is proposed to gradually merge multilayers in the day-ahead market to a single deterministic layer in real-time. The merge is needed because the market must be deterministic in real time, whether sources are available or not. This is also reasonable because participants are more certain about the available power output the closer to real time. Further, the proposed scheduling framework is extended to consider the transmission constraints with a case study based on a modified version of the PJM 5-bus system.