Timeframe capacity factor reliability model for isolated microgrids with renewable energy resources

In recent decades, the integration of renewable energy resources in the power system has grown rapidly around the globe. Using renewable energy resources in microgrids is appropriate, especially where access to public power energy is impossible or costly. This paper presents a novel method for assessing the reliability of microgrids, taking into account the probabilistic behavior of solar and wind power. In this model, the study period is divided into different Timeframes (TFs), and for each TF, the timeframe capacity factor (TFCF) is considered for each renewable energy resource. To assess the microgrid´s reliability, the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLP) and Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS) are calculated. Compared to existing probabilistic models, the prerequisites data and running time for reliability assessment is significantly reduced when using the proposed method. These two virtues suit the model well for optimization-based planning problems.