Are software development technologies delivering their promise?

When a technology is new, it is usually surrounded by a lot of hype. Nowadays, most people recognise this for what it is and are not disappointed when extravagant claims are not fulfilled. As time passes, a more realistic view is formed and the promise of the technology emerges. The promise is what people really believe the technology can give them. Later still, often with hindsight when the technology has been in use for a while, one can see its real potential. The potential usually falls short of the promise, but occasionally exceeds it, and the potential may or may not be met. This paper addresses issues such as: the nature of the promise; factors affecting the delivery of the promise; and whether, in general, the promise is being kept