Systems to support judgemental adjustment of initial forecasts

The studies reported examine the way in which a forecasting support system (FSS) should be designed to allow for the integration of judgemental and statistical forecasts. They study the efficacy of allowing people to adjust their own forecasts in the light of statistical forecasts that are provided to them. Three experimental studies varied the reliability of the reference forecasts and examined the performance of people over time. Issues of the form of the feedback and the use of decision support are also examined. Results unequivocally suggest that people have considerable difficulty placing less weight on their own forecasts (compared to the reference forecasts) and that this behaviour becomes more pronounced over time. Even provision of decision support did not improve performance at the task.<>