Power system on-line risk assessment and decision support based on weighting fault possibility model

The outdoor component weighting fault possibility model is established based on operational state of components, utility theory and probability theory. The model has considered the dispatchers´ operation experience and sensitivity to the weather. Using this model, the risk indices of power system can be simulated and calculated. The online risk analysis software of power supply (RAPS) for regional grid has been developed by using AC-DC hybrid algorithm and introducing some advanced technology, including parallel computing, dynamic node ordering optimization, matrix inverse optimization, etc. The system can supply dispatchers with real-time decision information, and provide decision support for dispatchers. By applying this software in a regional grid, the validity and practicality of this model have been proved.