• DocumentCode
    2075595
  • Title

    Do-ahead replaces run-time: a neural network forecasts options volatility

  • Author

    Malliaris, Mary ; Salchenberger, Linda

  • Author_Institution
    Dept. of Manage. Sci., Loyola Univ., Chicago, IL, USA
  • fYear
    1994
  • fDate
    1-4 Mar 1994
  • Firstpage
    480
  • Lastpage
    481
  • Abstract
    Compares three methods of estimating the volatility of daily S&P 100 Index stock market options. The implied volatility, calculated via the Black-Scholes model, is currently the most popular method of estimating volatility and is used by traders in the pricing of options. Historical volatility has been used to predict the implied volatility, but the estimates are poor predictors. A neural network for predicting volatility is shown to be far superior to the historical method
  • Keywords
    finance; neural nets; stock markets; Black-Scholes model; do-ahead method; historical volatility; implied volatility prediction; neural network; options pricing; run-time method; stock market options volatility; stock market traders; Calendars; Economic forecasting; Forward contracts; History; Input variables; Motion measurement; Neural networks; Predictive models; Pricing; Runtime;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Artificial Intelligence for Applications, 1994., Proceedings of the Tenth Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    San Antonia, TX
  • Print_ISBN
    0-8186-5550-X
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/CAIA.1994.323630
  • Filename
    323630