Spatio-temporal effects analysis of grain yield on country level in Shandong province

Grain security deals with grain alone differs from food security, grain security is related to the development of the national economy is a major strategic issues, the warning limits and spatial autocorrelation characteristics and of per capita grain possession about 91 country units were analyzed in Shandong province in 2000 and in 2007. Furthermore, spatial error model of the total grain yield was established about 91 country units. Results showed that the spatial status of per capita grain possession of 63 country units in 2007 increased comparing with that of 2000, percent 69.2% of 91 units presented the increasing tendency. The center of per capita grain possession located in lingxian, Yucheng country, in the north of Shandong province whether in 2000 or in 2007. The results also indicated there is the no warning status of per capita grain possession about 80 countries units, 11 county units with warning status. From 2000 to 2007, the spatial autocorrelation characteristics of per capita grain possession was significantly presented and the spatial difference of per capita grain possession suffered a decrease and the spatial pattern was more reasonable. The SEM study results indicated development of the total grain yield need agricultural informationization and mechanization, policy orientation, social economy driving forces for total grain yield increased important influence.