An Empirical Analysis of a Monitoring System of Local Fiscal Risk

Based on the summarization of the study of local fiscal risk, this paper considers that Local Fiscal Risk focus on the local government debt and correlate the local finance and economy nearly. By this point, it puts forward two layers´ monitoring indicators which are local government debt indicator and combined indicator of local finance and economy, and set up two monitoring standard which are value L of risk of local government debt and value F of combined risk of local finance and economy. Then it chooses the data of A province in China, calculates L and F by using the Appraising Model of AHP weight of entropy ,and analyzes the relativity and multi-linear regression between L and F, thereby putting forward the monitoring standard of local fiscal risk.