Title :
Research on Energy Demand Forecast with LEAP Model Based on Scenario Analysis - A Case Study of Shandong Province
Author :
Wang, Qingsong ; Mu, Ruimin ; Yuan, Xueliang ; Ma, Chunyuan
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Energy & Power Eng., Shandong Univ., Jinan, China
Abstract :
Economy has kept in fast increasing in the past decade in Shandong Province. The boosted economy is companied with the rocked up of energy consumption. Energy shortage is becoming the significant limiting factor for further economic development of Shandong. Combined with the trend of economic development, current situation of energy consumption, progress in industrial restructuring and other related factors, the energy demand of 2010, 2015 and 2020 is forecasted with LEAP model. The result shows that the increasing rate of energy consumption and energy utilization intensity is very high. Economic development will still dependent on the increase of energy consumption heavily in the future. In order to realize sustainable development, Shandong has to achieve a better technological progress, optimized industrial structure and improved energy efficiency.
Keywords :
energy consumption; load forecasting; macroeconomics; power system economics; sustainable development; LEAP model; Shandong Province China; economic development; energy consumption; energy demand forecast; energy shortage; energy utilization intensity; long range energy alternatives planning system; sustainable development; technological progress; Demand forecasting; Economic forecasting; Energy consumption; Environmental economics; Industrial economics; Layout; Load forecasting; Power engineering and energy; Power generation economics; Predictive models;
Conference_Titel :
Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC), 2010 Asia-Pacific
Conference_Location :
Chengdu
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4812-8
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4813-5
DOI :
10.1109/APPEEC.2010.5448657
