Research on Energy Demand Forecast with LEAP Model Based on Scenario Analysis - A Case Study of Shandong Province

Economy has kept in fast increasing in the past decade in Shandong Province. The boosted economy is companied with the rocked up of energy consumption. Energy shortage is becoming the significant limiting factor for further economic development of Shandong. Combined with the trend of economic development, current situation of energy consumption, progress in industrial restructuring and other related factors, the energy demand of 2010, 2015 and 2020 is forecasted with LEAP model. The result shows that the increasing rate of energy consumption and energy utilization intensity is very high. Economic development will still dependent on the increase of energy consumption heavily in the future. In order to realize sustainable development, Shandong has to achieve a better technological progress, optimized industrial structure and improved energy efficiency.