Title :
Mixed Financial Forecasting Index System Construct and Financial Forecasting Study on the C4.5 Decision Tree
Author :
Liu, Chunmei ; Jiang, Qian
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Inf. Manage. & Eng., Shanghai Univ. of Finance & Econ., Shanghai, China
Abstract :
The current research to construct financial risk forecasting model is base on a suppose: accounting information is real. But the action of enterprise profit control makes the application of financial risk forecasting system lack significance. Hence, this paper introduces non-financial index into financial risk forecasting system to establish mix financial index evaluation system including financial index and non-financial index, and also introduces C4.5 decision tree arithmetic into the modeling process. It also conducts an empirical analysis of listed companies´ financial risk model using the data of 2005 years and 2006 years. The result shows that: the forecasting capability of mix financial index model is better than the model only using financial index.
Keywords :
decision trees; financial management; forecasting theory; risk analysis; C4.5 decision tree; accounting information; enterprise profit control; financial forecasting index system; financial risk forecasting system; nonfinancial index; Companies; Decision trees; Economic forecasting; Finance; Information management; Logic; Manufacturing industries; Multi-layer neural network; Neural networks; Predictive models;
Conference_Titel :
Management and Service Science, 2009. MASS '09. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Wuhan
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4638-4
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4639-1
DOI :
10.1109/ICMSS.2009.5302147