Application on the rate of lightning trip based on the grey model

Trip-out rate plays a very important role in the research of stable operation of power system, so trip-out rate forecast has become an urgent problem. combining with the characteristics of the grey theory, a catastrophe prediction model about trip-out rate was set up based on the original data. A trip-out rate threshold was established and the data exceeding it was considered abnormal. The time when the trip-out rate would appear abnormal was predicted through the original data and the model. The exception value was accurately predicted by one instance at last. It proves the validity of the prediction method. From another perspective, the gray model can improve the power supply reliability.