Title :
Predictions based on the GM model of grey system
Author :
Sun, Wuji ; Liu, Yichen ; Fu, Wei
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Telecommun. & Inf. Eng., Nanjing Univ. of Posts & Telecommun., Nanjing, China
Abstract :
The detection of serial crimes has always been a problem because of the randomness of the crime locations. In this paper, we propose two models named GM (1, N) and GM (0, N) based on the theory of grey system. Grey system, a novel system which has an advantage on processing the data with less information, can help us predict the next location of a crime only by when the previous crimes happened and where. Predictions made by GM (1, N) and GM (0, N) are not exactly the same because GM(1, N) is a dynamic model while GM(0, N) is a static model. The results of the experiments show that GM(1, N) is a little more accurate than GM(0, N). However, due to the randomness of serial crimes, the two models are both feasible and effective.
Keywords :
grey systems; police data processing; random processes; GM (0, N); GM (1, N); dynamic model; grey system; serial crime detection; static model; Analytical models; Artificial neural networks; Biological system modeling; Data models; Mathematical model; Predictive models; GM Model; Grey System; predictions;
Conference_Titel :
Information Theory and Information Security (ICITIS), 2010 IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Beijing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-6942-0
DOI :
10.1109/ICITIS.2010.5689788
