DocumentCode :
2113680
Title :
Dynamic competitive analysis for tourist volume of offshore islands in Taiwan
Author :
Shih-Ching Lo
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Transp. Tech. & Logist. Manage., Chung Hua Univ., Hsinchu, Taiwan
fYear :
2013
fDate :
23-25 July 2013
Firstpage :
967
Lastpage :
971
Abstract :
The existing documentary and research emphasize on the tourism resource, tourist behavior, or continuity of natural resource of individual Taiwanese off-shore island. A dynamic macroscopic model is proposed to forecast tourist volume for three southern offshore islands in Taiwan. The model, which consists of three differential equations, is based on grey Lotka-Volterra model. In addition, five social-economic factors are considered to describe the external effects on tourism. According to the results, the model with gross domestic product (GDP) presents the best explanation and forecasting. The results are assessed by mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and show good accuracy.
Keywords :
Volterra equations; differential equations; economic indicators; travel industry; GDP; MAPE; differential equations; dynamic competitive analysis; dynamic macroscopic model; grey Lotka-Volterra model; gross domestic product; individual Taiwanese off-shore island; mean absolute percentage error; natural resource continuity; social-economic factors; southern offshore islands; tourism resource; tourist behavior; tourist volume; Data models; Economic indicators; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Predator prey systems; Predictive models; Solid modeling; dynamic competitive; offshore islands tourism; social-economic variables;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (FSKD), 2013 10th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Shenyang
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/FSKD.2013.6816335
Filename :
6816335
Link To Document :
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