Reservoir Real Time Risk Dispatching Combining Forecasting Error

Based on statistic forecasting error of different flood discharge magnitude, this paper considers the forecasting errors have relationship with flood discharge magnitude. Using interval estimation principle, a probable error magnitude bound on different risk level a is estimated. To consider safety preference, the upper limit of the probable error magnitude bound is called maximal probable error. On the same risk level, the correlativity function between different flood discharge magnitude and its maximal probable error is called forecasting error risk function. Then the text establishes reservoir forecasting error risk function which puts scientific basis for rational making use of forecasting production . According to reservoir scheduling discipline, probing into Feng Shuba reservoir risk forecasting dispatching combining forecasting error risk, it puts application for real time forecasting and dispatching.