A study of the air-sea interactions and associated Hurricane Gordon in the Gulf of Mexico

Under the NASA/FAR Program, a study has been established to investigate air-sea interactions associated with the formation and development of Hurricane Gordon in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Gordon first began as a weak disturbance off the eastern shore of the Yucatan Peninsula on September 10th, 2000. The area of disturbed weather moved onshore then offshore again on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The convection developed a surface low and was named Tropical depression number 11. It then strengthened, becoming a named tropical storm, Gordon, on September 15th and then a minimal hurricane on September 16th as it neared the Florida Panhandle. It weakened to tropical storm status late on September 17th, a few hours before it made landfall. NOAA buoy data from the National Data Buoy Center are used in this study. Remote Sensing GOES and AVHRR satellite data from NOAA are used as well. These data were used in the calculation of heat, momentum, and moisture fluxes. The study indicated that (a) average sea-surface temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico were about 29°C, and (b) the air-sea inter phase was a maximum 3-4 days before the storm developed. We further investigate to development of predictive models including (i) a regression model, and (ii) a Hurricane Predictive Index, for forecasting the formation and development of Hurricane Gordon that occurred during September 11-20, 2000.