A New Forecasting Model to Improve Earned Value Index to Achieve an Accurate Project Time and Cost Estimation

Author

Attarzadeh, Iman ; Hock, Ow Siew

Author_Institution

Dept. of Software Eng., Univ. of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur

fYear

2009

fDate

3-5 April 2009

Firstpage

317

Lastpage

321

Abstract

This paper presents a new forecasting model to improve earned value (EV) method of projects. This method improves earned value management system (EVMS) and forecasting time and cost for projects. These method use established consists of four variables: scheduled performance index (SPI), cost performance index (CPI), cost variance (CV), schedule variance (SV). The model has been validated by a simulation study using a progress generator a new software. This software was developed in Visual Studio 2008 - Visual Basic.NET 2008 and Microsoft Office Project 2007 and it included some basic assumptions and data were generated day by day randomly. The results show a strong relationship between response variable and above four predictors. Therefore, it can be concluded that the model could be used in a wide range of projects for EAC estimation.

Keywords

costing; economic forecasting; performance index; project management; scheduling; statistical analysis; Microsoft Office Project 2007; Visual Basic.NET 2008; Visual Studio 2008; cost performance index; cost variance; earned value index; earned value management system; forecasting model; progress generator software; project cost estimation; project time estimation; schedule variance; scheduled performance index; Costs; Defense industry; Equations; Information management; Job shop scheduling; Performance analysis; Predictive models; Project management; Software engineering; Technology forecasting; cost performance index; earned value; performance management; schedule performance index; time and cost forecasting;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Information Management and Engineering, 2009. ICIME '09. International Conference on

Conference_Location

Kuala Lumpur

Print_ISBN

978-0-7695-3595-1

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICIME.2009.23

Filename

5077050