Long term electricity demand forecasting in residential sector of Pakistan

Pakistan is experiencing electrical power supply and demand challenge. Country´s demand is rising immensely, especially in domestic sector and it is imperative to decide the new power policies in order to control the situation. One of the primary requirements for power policy design is to construct a detailed electricity demand forecasting model. This study predicts electricity consumption for domestic sector by incorporating economic and demographic activity through Longrange Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP). The forecasting would be performed up to 2030 when 2005 has been selected as the base year. An extensive data has been collected and structured for the essential factors including growth of enduse appliances, domestic consumption trends and the changes in urban rural ratio. Electrical demand has been predicted under the reference scenario of expected economic growth without any implication of new policies and the results have been compared with official government predictions. Moreover, four different scenarios have also been analyzed to investigate economic and technical aspects of complete electrification with high rate of urbanization, penetration of energy efficient devices, population growth control plan and high economic growth. This research would develop awareness in power system planners and policy makers to congregate the expected increment in demand.