Forecasting of winter wheat yield for Turkey using Water Balance Model

Climate is one of the most important factors affecting agricultural production which is under the influence of climatic factors such as rainfall, rainfall distribution and temperature during the year. Many methods have been developed for crop monitoring and yield forecast using climatic data for recent decades. Statistical approach, crop simulation and remote sensing methods have been widely used for the yield forecasting studies. In this study, AGROMETSHELL software developed by FAO for arid regions was used. AGROMETSHELL model produces water balance parameters (WRSI) which is calculated from total evaporation values that take for actual rainfall and crop coefficients between planting and harvesting dates. In this project Water Satisfaction Index parameters, calculated by Agrometshell model, were regressed with historic crop yield statistics of State Institute of Statistics to produce crop yield forecasts before harvest time. Yield forecasts were produced at provincial level and expected increases and decreases in yield are calculated as percentages (%).