Grey-Stochastic Analysis on Complex Uncertainty for the Run Risk of Reservoir Dam

Aimed at the quantitative analysis for the run risk of dam, an evaluation method based on grey-stochastic risk analysis and its engineering application was put forward. According to the disposal of regarding the complicated uncertainty relationship in the run of dam as a grey-stochastic complex uncertainty, the analysis method of grey-stochastic risk probability was set up. By ascertaining the functional function, the grey-stochastic risk probability was transformed into commonly stochastic risk probability. Finally, the amended first-order second-moment method was utilized to calculate quantitatively the failure risk of reservoir dam and the risk value obtained falls in a grey space, which satisfactorily reflects the uncertainty of the run risk of dam.