A statistical model for seasonal forecasting of spring break-up in Hudson Bay

Author

Tivy, A.

Author_Institution

Canadian Ice Service, Ottawa, Ont.

Volume

7

fYear

2004

fDate

20-24 Sept. 2004

Firstpage

4390

Abstract

A linear regression model is developed to predict spring ice conditions in Hudson Bay 3 months in advance. The model has 8 atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice predictors that together explain 90% of the variability in the predicted time series with a MAE of 0.26. The categorical forecast accuracy ranges from 73% to 77% A series of diagnostics including Monte Carlo simulations are used to ensure that the model is statistically significant and is not adversely affected by serial correlation or multicolinearity. The results suggest that for long-lead forecasts, sea ice severity may be forecasted using a simple statistical model that does not require any information regarding the future climate

Keywords

Monte Carlo methods; atmospheric techniques; climatology; oceanographic regions; oceanographic techniques; regression analysis; sea ice; weather forecasting; Hudson Bay; MAE; Monte Carlo simulations; atmospheric predictor; categorical forecast accuracy; climatology; linear regression model; long-lead forecasts; multicolinearity; oceanic predictor; sea ice predictor; sea ice severity; seasonal forecasting; serial correlation; spring break-up; spring ice condition; statistical model; time series; Atmospheric modeling; Computational Intelligence Society; Geography; Information analysis; Linear regression; Ocean temperature; Predictive models; Sea ice; Sea surface; Springs;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 2004. IGARSS '04. Proceedings. 2004 IEEE International

Conference_Location

Anchorage, AK

Print_ISBN

0-7803-8742-2

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/IGARSS.2004.1370122

Filename

1370122