DocumentCode :
2166510
Title :
R/S-based trend prediction of the factors that affect the groundwater resources changes in Minqin Oasis
Author :
Liu, Yanping ; Cao, Jianjun
Author_Institution :
GIS Dept., Lanzhou Jiaotong Univ., Lanzhou, China
fYear :
2012
fDate :
19-21 Oct. 2012
Firstpage :
1
Lastpage :
4
Abstract :
To predict the influencing factors in the groundwater resources changes is one of preliminary work in predicting of the groundwater resource´s changes, which plays an important role in using groundwater reasonably in arid areas, such as Minqin Oasis. This study uses a so-called R/S Analysis method to predict three major factors that affect the groundwater resources change in Minqin Oasis i.e. population, grain yield and the quantity of the upstream inflow. The results show that the Hurt index of the time series about the population in the Oasis is 0.733, which indicates that the future general changing trend of population in the Oasis is an increasing trend as the same as that in the period from 1960 to 2010. The Hurt index of the time series about grain yield in this Oasis is 0.901, which states that its future changing trend has a stronger long-term positive correlation with the increasing trend in the period from 1960 to 2010. In other words, its´ future general changing trend is also increasing. The Hurt index of the quantity of upstream inflow in the Oasis is 0.916, which shows that its future general changing trend has a very strong long-term positive correlation with the decreasing trend in the period from 1960 to 2010, presenting a decreasing trend.
Keywords :
groundwater; water resources; AD 1960 to 2010; Hurt index; Minqin Oasis; R/S-based trend prediction; arid areas; groundwater resources; population general changing trend; time series; upstream inflow quantity; Correlation; Indexes; Market research; Sociology; Time series analysis; Water resources; Minqin Oasis; groundwater resources; influencing factors; trend prediction;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Geomatics for Integrated Water Resources Management (GIWRM), 2012 International Symposium on
Conference_Location :
Lanzhou, Gansu
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-1283-7
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/GIWRM.2012.6349535
Filename :
6349535
Link To Document :
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