Numerical simulation study of the effection of the future eruption of Pinatubo volcano on the environment of China

In this paper, a numerical simulation study on long distance transport of volcano ash from Pinatubo volcano with Hysplit-4 model of Air Resource Laboratory, NOAA,USA, has been introduced. Two conclusion are : 1) 84 case simulations with Hysplit-4 model, according to the historical meteorological fields from 1983 to 2003, show us that there are four routines for the volcano ash cloud move from Phillipine. The most dangerous routine is the northward routine. 2) The worst case is the case if the Pinatubo volcano erupts in July, 1998, The volcano ash cloud can land on the above atmosphere over the area of south China in 48 hours.