Traffic flow management modeling and operational complexity

Traffic flow management (TFM) actions are commonly used to mitigate capacity/demand imbalances within the National Airspace System (NAS). Modeling TFM events has proven challenging in the past, partly because of weather forecast uncertainty, and partly because of the complexity and unpredictability associated with highly-interrelated traffic patterns and distributed decision-making in the NAS. In this paper, we present results of a simulation of a NAS TFM event in which weather effects are relatively small. This facilitates interpretation of the similarities and differences between simulation results and the actual event in terms of NAS operations and decision making, with relatively small weather-related complications. We conclude that TFM modeling shows promise as a tool to aid post-event TFM analysis, but the complex operational factors impose limits on the predictability of outcomes in TFM events. A CAASD-developed fast-time network simulation of the NAS was used for this analysis.