Probabilistic Framework for Assessing the Accuracy of Data Mining Tool for Online Prediction of Transient Stability

The paper presents a generic probabilistic framework for assessing the accuracy of online prediction of power system transient stability based on phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements and data mining techniques. It allows fair comparison of different data mining models in terms of the accuracy of the prediction. To illustrate the concept, a decision tree (DT) method is used as an example of a data mining technique. It is implemented in a 16-machine, 68-bus test power system. Generator rotor angles and speeds provided by PMUs during post-fault condition are chosen as predictors. The performance of the DT based prediction method is tested using a wide variety of disturbances with probabilistically modeled locations, durations, types of fault and the system loading levels. The accuracy of prediction is approximately 98.5% immediately following the fault clearance and can increase to almost 100% if the prediction is made 2.5 s after the fault clearance.