Calculating the expected unserved energy in generating systems using the concept of mean capacity outage

The authors present the concept of mean capacity outage by means of which the calculation of the expected unserved energy in generating systems can be reduced to a straightforward summation over the chronological load data. Unlike existing methods the proposed method does not require construction of a negative margin table. The proposed method is illustrated by application to a small sample-system and to the IEEE Reliability Test System