A stochastic load model for use in operating reserve evaluation

The authors present an analytical model of the short-term load that includes, in addition to the expected load, the expected variation. The variation is important because it is this variation of the load (together with potential unit failures) that causes operational risk. The authors present a general Gaussian stochastic sequence load model; explain why it is a reasonable model; and show how this model can be estimated from empirical data that should be available with any type of short term load forecast. Finally, the authors approximate the stochastic load model by a Gauss-Markov sequence, the Markov property greatly simplifies evaluation of unit commitment risk due to both unit failures and load variation