Probabilistic bulk production cost model by a continuation Monte Carlo simulation method

The authors present a novel approach that attempts to drastically reduce the computation cost of Monte Carlo simulations of bulk power systems, without sacrificing modelling detail regarding network representation or chronology. The approach borrows both from techniques based on the continuation method, and from ideas germane to LP parametric programming. The method has been specifically designed to be used with power systems of large dimensions; however, so far it has been only tested at a prototype level. The emphasis of this paper is on the presentation of the theoretical aspects of the proposed approach