A probabilistic approach to the long-term planning of public electricity distribution networks

A new methodology for the long-term planning of public electricity distribution networks is presented, The methods developed take into account both the uncertainties related to the growth of loads and the dynamic nature of the problem. The basic methods used are stochastic dynamic programming and statistical decision analysis. By using the proposed approach, the optimal investment strategy for the long-term development of a distribution network can be evaluated. The methods presented are applied to medium-voltage (e.g. 20 kV) networks, which are radially operated