A Monte Carlo simulation model for adequacy assessment of multi-area generating systems

The authors illustrate a Monte Carlo simulation procedure for adequacy assessment of multi-area generating systems. A sequential approach based on the state residence times of generating units and tie lines is utilized. The model uses the maximum flow algorithm to calculate power interchanges between areas when a load loss situation is found in one or more areas. The duty cycle of peak load units can be accurately modelled using chronological representation of the system component operating cycles. Load forecast uncertainty can also be included. The frequency and duration indices can be estimated and the distributions of various reliability indices obtained. The model is illustrated by comparison between analytical answers and simulated values for a single area IEEE-RTS. Studies are then extended to several multi-area configurations constructed by connecting many IEEE-RTSs together