Study of spatial-temporal spread model for wheat stripe rust in small scale based on Bayesian network

In traditional, the research of wheat stripe rust spreading mode was focus on the large scale meteorological propagation model. In this paper, we present a diagnosis and propagation model of wheat stripe rust in field scales based on Bayesian network, which can provides technical support for short-term accurate prediction and precision pesticide of stripe rust in small scale. Through the wheat stripe rust induction experiment in different scales field grids, we get the spatio-temporal occurring and spreading law of wheat stripe rust in different scales. Then we can choice the accurate scale of model, structure learning method and parameters learning method of the spatio-temporal spreading model of wheat stripe rust. After constructing the Bayesian network model, we can predict and analyze incidence of stripe rust in a certain fields and can verify the accuracy of model by contrast the real disease in field with the predict result.