Study on Engineering Project Investment Risk Measure Based on Monte Carlo Method

Take economic net present worth as the appraisal target to measure the engineering project investment risk, confirmed main factor for risk analysis as well as the variable probability distribution type from the financial appraisal aspect. Then established the investment risk analysis model by integrated the random variable random number production method with it. And determined the simulation times from the statistical theory. Finally, elaborated how to carry on the risk analysis to the simulation result. Using the Monte Carlo simulation technology may obtain many and more comprehensive statistical information, thus the decision-maker may acquire more comprehensive understanding to the investment plan, in order to be advantageous in making the best decisions. In addition, the Monte Carlo method also has the characteristic of simple and easy to operate. Therefore, this article thought the Monte Carlo simulation is one of quite effective methods to the engineering construction project investment risk research.