Title :
The evaluation of confidence limit on LOLP for multi area system
Author :
Suhartono ; Zika, Y. ; Sasaki, Seishi
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electr. Eng., Hiroshima Univ., Japan
Abstract :
Since the forced outage rates (FOR) of generating plants is actually uncertain, LOLP must be a random variable. This paper presents an effective simulation method for calculating the value of LOLP of a multi area system by considering uncertainties both on FOR and load forecasting. There are no exact values of LOLP in a random system, and therefore one has to evaluate its confidence interval. The interval estimate of LOLP gives the upper and lower values of LOLP, so that the LOLP lies between these limits with a specified probability. These upper and lower values of LOLP may be interpreted to be confidence limits on the expected value of LOLP. The simulation results were tested by statistical goodness-of-fit tests and the gamma distribution was found to provide a good fit to the data produced by the Monte Carlo simulations for the sample system
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; gamma distribution; power system faults; power system interconnection; power system reliability; Monte Carlo simulations; confidence interval; confidence limit evaluation; gamma distribution; load forecasting; loss of load probability; multi-area power system; simulation method; statistical goodness-of-fit tests; uncertainties; History; Load forecasting; Monte Carlo methods; Power industry; Predictive models; Probability; Random variables; Sampling methods; System testing; Uncertainty;
Conference_Titel :
Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies, 2000. Proceedings. DRPT 2000. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
London
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-5902-X
DOI :
10.1109/DRPT.2000.855732
