Economic modelling of uncertain next-generation network evolution

In this paper the uncertainties and the implied level of risk associated with next-generation network architectures is modelled using Monte Carlo simulation, aimed at understanding network economics evolution. A high number of network parameters - like incremental network deployment, data centre location, network architecture, service mix, traffic growth and subscriber take-up - are modelled. A wide range of values is used for these parameters to gain understanding of their impact on network cost. Such an approach provides insight into the risk level undertaken by operators when building their network infrastructure based on a specific forecast. Thus, the core result of this analysis is that a sub-wavelength optical packet forwarding technology can de-risk network investments by 500% when compared to a next-generation IPoDWDM solution. Second, in a scaled network scenario the sub-wavelength solution also provides 150% capital savings. Finally, on the medium and long term the sub-wavelength approach yields a cost benefit for 99.8% of the configurations, when compared to an IPoDWDM architecture.