Title :
Phase space reconstruction and prediction of multivariate chaotic time series
Author :
Zhang, Chun-tao ; Guo, Jiao ; Ma, Qian-li ; Peng, Hong ; Zhang, Xiao-dong
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Mathematic & Comput. Sci., Chongqing Three Gorges Univ., Chongqing, China
Abstract :
In order to obtain the effective input vector for the prediction of multivariate time series, method of joint entropy determine the dimension(JEDD) is proposed in the reconstructed phase space. For multivariate chaotic time series, Firstly, determine the delay time of each variate with mutual information method, and then propose the algorithm that determines the embedding dimension of phase space by the joint entropy. The algorithm could choose the reconstructed components based on the maximum entropy principle, continuously expand phase space to make the amount of the information of reconstructed components as much as the system, which could eliminate the redundancy of phase space. The numerical experiments show that the neutral network prediction in the reconstructed phase space by JEDD is much better than univariate time series prediction and existing multiple variable predictions.
Keywords :
chaos; delays; maximum entropy methods; time series; JEDD; delay time; maximum entropy principle; multivariate chaotic time series prediction; mutual information method; neutral network prediction; phase space reconstruction; Artificial neural networks; Chaos; Delay effects; Entropy; Joints; Mutual information; Time series analysis; Embedding dimension; Joint entropy; Multivariate chaotic time series; Neutral network prediction;
Conference_Titel :
Machine Learning and Cybernetics (ICMLC), 2010 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Qingdao
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-6526-2
DOI :
10.1109/ICMLC.2010.5580749