Title :
A risk-based methodology for combating terrorism
Author :
Florentine, Christopher ; Isenstein, Mindy ; Libet, Jared ; Neece, Steve ; Zeng, Jim ; Haimes, Yacov ; Horowitz, Barry
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Syst. & Inf. Eng., Virginia Univ., Charlottesville, VA, USA
Abstract :
We develop a methodology for analyzing risk to the meat supply, with a specific focus on slaughterhouses. The safety of the nation´s meat supply from terrorist attack has become a major concern of the USDA after the September 11th attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Center. The methodology performs a risk assessment through hierarchical holographic modelling (HHM). The goal of the HHM is to capture all observables of a terrorist attack as well as identify all of the vulnerabilities of the target. A 2-player game using a blue team and red team aided in completing a more thorough HHM diagram. This process identified key observables such as researching of toxins and access to meat processing machines as possible indicators of an attack. Bayes´ theorem serves as the key tool for analyzing the observables identified through the HHM diagram to assess the likelihood of terrorist attack.
Keywords :
Bayes methods; food products; game theory; probability; risk analysis; security; terrorism; 2-player game; Bayes theorem; HHM diagram; hierarchical holographic modelling; meat processing machine; nation meat supply; risk analysis; risk assessment; terrorist attack; Holography; Information analysis; Risk analysis; Risk management; Safety; Security; Systems engineering and theory; Terrorism; US Department of Agriculture; Weapons;
Conference_Titel :
Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium, 2003 IEEE
Print_ISBN :
0-9744559-0-3
DOI :
10.1109/SIEDS.2003.158019