Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics

The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of state stability by representing the nature and dynamics of `loads´ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and by articulating the core features of state resilience and its `capacity´ to withstand these `loads´, on the other. The problem is to determine and `predict´ when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for `tipping points´, namely conditions under which small changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. On this basis, we then identify appropriate actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of `tipping´ and enhance prospects for stability