Analysis of transfer capability by Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation

Adequate security margins are normally applied in power systems by keeping a pre-defined set of transfer limits through certain transmission corridors in the system. This will protect the transmission lines from overheating causing a violation of the thermal stability limits of the system. However, for other security limits such as, voltage stability, and lower voltage limits at specific nodes, the distribution of the injected power amongst the nodes of the system will also be of importance. In this article we propose a method for generating samples of the injected power at all nodes given a set of transfers through specified corridors of the power system. It is then showed how the method can be used to evaluate the risk of violating the system stability limits induced by keeping a specific set of transfer limits. The method can be used in power system short-term planning when setting the limits for trading and transfer between the different nodes of the power system.