Title :
Imprecise probability and expert forecasting
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Math., Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN, USA
Abstract :
Evidence is often insufficient to support the assessment of precise probabilities. Shifting to vaguer measures of uncertainty, such as upper and lower probabilities, does not deprive one of the key analytical tools of classical probability. Two approaches to the calculation of upper and lower expected values are described and contrasted in the case of forecasting production costs of an electric utility. Conditionalization of imprecise probabilities is also discussed
Keywords :
costing; electricity supply industry; expert systems; forecasting theory; probability; uncertainty handling; electric utility; expert forecasting; imprecise probability; lower expected value; lower probability; production costs; uncertainty; upper expected value; upper probability; Binary search trees; Costs; Mathematics; Measurement uncertainty; Power industry; Probability distribution; Production;
Conference_Titel :
Tools with Artificial Intelligence, 1994. Proceedings., Sixth International Conference on
Conference_Location :
New Orleans, LA
Print_ISBN :
0-8186-6785-0
DOI :
10.1109/TAI.1994.346430