Long term energy scenarios under uncertainty

Traditionally a set of equally feasible scenarios is built to represent possible future energy outcomes. However, current approaches do not handle properly different scenarios appointing to divergent situations. This paper illustrates the fragilities of the state-of-the-art deterministic long term energy scenarios approach through the study of uncertain scenarios for fossil fuel prices and energy demand, using TIMES model for Portugal. Results show quite divergent power sector profiles and divergent investments options, when oil prices or demand for useful energy changes. Regarding the relevance of energy decision making under uncertainty, the paper proposes a methodology to deal with long term energy scenarios under uncertain parameters evolution. The methodology assumes a stochastic approach and connects a top-down and bottom-up model. The linkage is made through a calibration process based on iterative simulations, combining top-down properties with a bottom-up outcome.