On the characteristics of the predicted wind power based on three-parameter Weibull distribution

The credibility of predicted wind power is an important reference for power system operators. In this paper, three-parameter Weibull probability distribution is modeled to discover the characteristics of the actual wind power, i.e., the information behind the predicted wind power. First, methodology to determine the field wind power set corresponding to different wind power prediction level is developed. Then, the parameter identification for the three-parameter Weibull distributions is formulated as an optimal problem with the objective of minimum absolute error, considering the characteristics of field data in each prediction level. Furthermore, the sequential quadratics programming method is used to obtain the parameters. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the field data of typical wind farms in Inner Mongolia. The results show that the proposed method is more accurate than the traditional versatile distribution, normal distribution and two-parameter Weibull distribution.