Consumption quota model of repairable spares based on fill rate

According to the three conditions that spares demand variance-to-mean ratio are larger than, equal to or less than 1, put forward the Negative binomial distribution, Poisson distribution and Binomial distribution three demand distributions. For the problem that the two-echelon spares demand follows the Poisson distribution, used the Negative binomial distribution to improve the forecasting accuracy. With the fill rate as the criterion of the spares ensure degree, formulated the lowest fill rate on the basis of the affecting factors of the spares consumption quota. In the given total security funds and the minimum fill rates as the constraint conditions, the fill rate maximization as the objective function, established the spares consumption quota model, adopted the marginal analysis to optimize it and compile algorithm. The example proves that the model has good prediction effect.