Some concepts for trajectory prediction for ship self defense

Threat trajectories are predicted for a one-on-one engagement against an anti-ship cruise missile in a ship self-defense scenario. The prediction trajectories belong to one of two classes: state based, and goal based. In the state based, the prediction is based entirely on the estimated threat state, while in the goal based it is assumed that the threat´s destination is the ship. Several types of predicted trajectories are formulated. The selection of trajectory type depends usually on the reliability of the estimates of elements in the threat state, especially the threat acceleration. Less exact knowledge requires use of simpler trajectory models. Presence of the sea surface requires some modification of the trajectories in some cases. The different prediction methods are evaluated against a standard scenario