An adaptive neural fuzzy network model for seasonal stream flow forecasting

This paper presents an adaptive neural fuzzy network model for seasonal stream flow forecasting. The model is based on a constructive learning method that adds neurons to the network structure whenever new knowledge is necessary so that it learns the fuzzy rules and membership functions essential for modeling a fuzzy system. The model was implemented to forecast monthly average inflow on an one-step-ahead basis. It was tested on three hydroelectric plants located in different river basins in Brazil. When the results were compared with those of a multilayer feedforward neural network model, the present model revealed at least a 50% decrease in the forecasting error