Analyzing network failures in disaster scenarios using a travelling wave probabilistic model

Communication network infrastructures are always in danger of natural disasters or physical attacks. The destructive effects of these incidents can cause large-scale failures in the network. This paper proposes a model for the impact of failure considering wave energy behaviour to compute probability of failures, and calculates required spare capacities in path restoration mechanism based on this model and compares it with the deterministic model. The proposed model can be employed to identify additional resources to provide the expected level of survivability in the event of large-scale failure scenarios.