A cointegration analysis on the relationship between China´s rural surplus labor transfer and economic growth

Based on the data collected from 1981 to 2004, this paper explores the short-term influence and long-term relationship between rural surplus labor force transfer and economic development by applying cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, as well as ECM. The conclusion is: There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between rural surplus labor force transfer and economic development; In the long run, they have a positive correlation, and the former is the latter´s onesided Granger causality; And in the short run, the first-lag-phase economic variable, as well as the second one, the third one, the fourth one, and the second-lag-phase surplus labor force transfer variable, as well as the fifth one, they all give rise to economic short-term fluctuation.