Forecasting model for logistics demand scale in Guangdong Province based on Grey System Theory

Author

Zuo, Wenming ; Fan, Chang ; Huang, Qiuping

Author_Institution

Sch. of Econ. & Commerce, South China Univ. of Technol., Guangzhou, China

fYear

2011

fDate

25-27 June 2011

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

3

Abstract

In this paper, firstly logistics demand is introduced and indicator items are discussed. Then forecasting of logistics demand scale is illustrated. And GM(1,1) model is discussed in detail. Based on freight traffic and freight ton-kilometers, a novel forecasting model using Grey System Theory for logistics demand scale in Guangdong Province is proposed. Experiment result shows that relative error of freight traffic forcasting for 2009 is 0.8576% and that of freight ton-kilometers is 0.526%. So this model is efficient for forecasting of logistics demand in local area.

Keywords

freight handling; grey systems; logistics; Guangdong province; freight ton-kilometers forecasting; freight traffic forecasting; grey system theory; logistics demand scale forecasting model; Biological system modeling; Differential equations; Economics; Forecasting; Logistics; Mathematical model; Predictive models; GM(1,1); Grey System Theory; demand forecasting; logistics demand;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Service Systems and Service Management (ICSSSM), 2011 8th International Conference on

Conference_Location

Tianjin

ISSN

2161-1890

Print_ISBN

978-1-61284-310-0

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICSSSM.2011.5959403

Filename

5959403