Optimal selection of generators for a microgrid under uncertainty

Microgrids are defined as an area of network that is capable of operating autonomously from the rest of the electricity system. They achieve this by containing enough energy resources to meet all incorporated electrical (and thermal) loads, and by coordinating control in order to meet the participants´ aims, and afford adequate quality/reliability of power and heat supply. From an economic point-of-view, the key determinant is the fact that sufficient resources must exist within the microgrid to meet the demands of participants with a degree of reliability that is commensurate with the value of the load being served. Framed by these issues, this paper presents a method for cost-optimal microgrid design (i.e. choice of generation components) under uncertainty of energy price and technology performance. Results serve to aid debate regarding the tractability of problems of this type, and demonstrate that currently-dominant deterministic approaches can lead to poor choice of components.