Title :
Based on the ARIMA model with grey theory for short term load forecasting model
Author :
Zhu, Xianghe ; Shen, Min
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Basic Sci., Huazhong Univ. of Sci. & Tech., Wuhan, China
Abstract :
The load forecasting of power system planning, electricity, scheduling and other departments of the foundation work, power load is influenced by grid for life and reliability is an important factor, In this paper a grid over the past five years the total power load data, the load data analysis and pretreatment, By using ARIMA model and grey GM (1, 1) model for the province´s total electricity load is divided in 3 days, 10 days, two cases to make short-term prediction, and compares the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods and accuracy.
Keywords :
autoregressive moving average processes; electricity supply industry; grey systems; load forecasting; power generation scheduling; power grids; power system planning; power system reliability; ARIMA model; grey model; grey theory; grid; load data analysis; power system planning; reliability; scheduling; short term load forecasting model; short-term prediction; time 10 day; time 3 day; total electricity load; total power load data; Analytical models; Autoregressive processes; Data models; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Predictive models; Time series analysis; ARIMA model; Grey model; Load modeling; Short term load forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
Systems and Informatics (ICSAI), 2012 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Yantai
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-0198-5
DOI :
10.1109/ICSAI.2012.6223060
