Determination of Available Transfer Capability Incorporating Transmission Reliability Margin

In a deregulated power system, determination of available transfer capability (ATC) should incorporate the amount of transmission reliability margin (TRM) so that the transmission network is secure under a reasonable range of uncertainty that occur during a power transfer. This paper presents a new approach to evaluate the TRM with an extensively large amount of uncertainty. The approach uses the standard uncertainty method which incorporates the parametric bootstrap technique and the normal probability density function. The uncertainty of system parameters that used in the TRM estimation is the uncertainty of transmission line impedances and forecasted peak load, ATC is then estimated by considering the outages of critical transmission line and critical generator unit and the TRM. A case study of IEEE 300 bus system is used to verify the robustness of the TRM method in estimating the ATC. Comparison in terms of accuracy in evaluating the TRM is made between the standard uncertainty and standard deviation of uncertainty techniques that used in the TRM methods.