Scenario-Based Approach for Evaluating Service Concepts in the ICT Sector

The paper applies the scenario method in investigating future industry and service concept development. Scenarios are plausible and alternative futures describing the dynamics of an interrelated set of variables. Their purpose is to tackle the inherent uncertainty of present and future business environment, and evaluate the fit of the organization´s business design in future environments. Although the scenario method is widely applied in organizations, it is often used as a learning tool to stimulate sharing of knowledge and the mental models of various stakeholders about the changing business environment. In this paper, we build three plausible scenarios describing the alternative futures of the ICT sector from the service operator perspective. We present applications for evaluating the fit between service concepts and scenarios, and provide novel insights into exploiting the scenario method in service concept development.